Betting Trotters

The defeat of heavily favored Googoo Gaagaa in the 2012 Yonkers Trot drew attention to the perpetual challenge of betting on trotters. He wasn't out-trotted by the field, but his two breaks of stride assured his own defeat. Some bettors refuse to play any trotting races at all, even the Hambletonian, the sport's most prestigious event. They prefer not to see their money evaporate well before the finish line as their horses make breaks from which they cannot recover in time. Pacers rarely break, so many people bet pacing races only.

There are things bettors can do to improve their chances in trots. But remember that there's no sure thing. The best-behaved, most consistent horses sometimes break stride for entirely unpredictable reasons. As in all wagering, the best you can expect is to reduce the unpredictability and increase your chances of making a reasoned choice.

First, check past performance charts for the x that marks breaks of stride in previous races. If a horse has a lot of x's decorating his chart he isn't necessarily a hopeless bet, but it does mean that you have to look closely at the circumstances.

Trotters make breaks for several reasons, some of which you can pick out during warm-ups:

• An agitated trotter is more likely to make a break than a calm one. A horse who's sweating too much for the conditions, who looks like he's jumping at every shadow around him, or who otherwise looks nervous may be a candidate for going off stride. His excitement may lead to an urge to gallop rather than trot.


• An unsound horse may have trouble saying on gait. You're unlikely to see obvious unsoundness. A clearly lame horse is not going to be permitted to start, but you may notice something-a head that nods a little too much, a stride that appears a little uneven.


• A trotter who interferes with himself will have more trouble with that interference on a sharp-turned, half-mile track than he will on a larger one. You can pick out the problem horses by all the equipment they wear. Knee boots, elbow boots, quarter boots-all are designed to protect a horse's body from being struck by one of his own hoofs. If your choice wears a lot of equipment, he may have an easier time staying on gait at a mile or 5/8 mile track than on a half-miler.


• A horse whose equipment fails or simply irritates him is more likely to break. Again, the more equipment, perhaps the greater tendency to break stride. But there is one big exception to this rule:

Trotting hobbles, a piece of equipment usually noted in the program, may mean a horse is more likely to break, but it also means that he is less likely to actually do it. Harness horsemen have been trying for well over a century to perfect equipment to help a horse stay on the trot. Hobbles-looped leather straps that connected all four legs-were developed for trotters shortly after the Civil War, but they proved cumbersome and uncomfortable and it wasn't clear if they reduced the tendency to break anyway. They didn't last long in the trotting man's arsenal, but they were modified for use on pacers, worked magnificently on the so-called sidewheelers, and became the single most important reason pacing races now dominate the North American harness racing schedule. Pacers rarely break stride and most people prefer them to trotters for betting purposes.

In recent years, front-legs-only trotting hobbles have grown in popularity. When CR Kay Suzie, the great trotting filly, wore them en route to the 1995 Horse of the Year Title, their future was assured. The use of these hobbles increases each year, with the devices now used on nearly 40 percent of starters in trotting races in North America. But they aren't likely to help a horse who isn't likely to break. They're not like the drug Lasix, which will move any horse up. If a horse shows a history of breaks in races and has only now been equipped with hobbles, that's good, although it's not a guarantee that he won't break even wearing them. It will just be less likely. If he has no history of breaks, you have to wonder if an injury or other problem has caused the trainer to make a change.

Here's one final note. If you want to take a chance on a chronic breaker, make sure he has been required to qualify recently to prove that he can go a mile without making a break.