Horse Racing Factors and Handicapping Mistakes

If you're trying to learn how to handicap horse races you've probably already heard about the factors that handicappers use to try to rate the horses. Speed, class, form, connections, and pace all figure into the formula for estimating each runner's chances of winning. If you've managed to master those bits of information you've probably moved on to the more tricky part of making money betting on horse racing -- betting.

I should say, smart betting, because that's the difference between picking winners and making a profit. I can show you plenty of people who are good at picking winners but when it comes to making it pay, the list gets mighty short. I've been at it for a long time and must admit it's still hard to do and a lot of work for a little return. But if you've got your heart set on being a horse player, here are some thoughts on how handicappers make mistakes when it comes to using the major factors.

First of all, at the top of the misused list, is speed. Damon Runyon once said, "The fastest horse doesn't always win, but that's how you have to play them." He was obviously a speed handicapper, before his time.

Many years before that a biblical sage sad, "The race is not to the swift... " He'd obviously seen a chariot race or two.

The point is just adding the speed figures isn't enough. Yes a horse might be the fastest on paper, but if he is battling a negative pace scenario or trying a different distance or surface for the first time, he'll probably be over bet. Speed is nice, but only when you use it with other factors.

As for class, what is it? Some say it is simply a matter of the caliber of horses that were faced in the last race(s). Others say it is how well a horse performed factored in to the caliber of the horses that were in the field in the last race. I like the last definition better.

I also like a holistic approach that looks at all the factors and weighs each one to assign odds to each horse. You may make a mistake with speed or class or even pace, but if you combine everything and really work at handicapping, you can often come up with a pretty good betting line and that is how you make a profit betting on horses.